The Carney government is moving quickly to respond to the most profound shift in the global economic, security and political environment in decades. From a Canadian perspective, the task is challenging at a number of levels: the sheer magnitude and diversity of the changes that are happening; uncertainty surrounding their true nature and future impact; and the weak condition of the basic instruments of statecraft preceding administrations have left for the current government in terms of the economic, diplomatic, defence, security and other capabilities needed to respond effectively.
The government is moving to remedy those weaknesses, and it is remarkable to see the uncharacteristic speed with which at least some of these efforts are now unfolding. Concurrently, it is fundamentally rethinking Canada’s global relationships and how it responds to international security risks. This article offers brief perspectives on four connected basic realities that need to be considered in charting the nation’s way forward.
Reality 1: Canada is NOT a “small country punching above its weight”
Canada’s economy is among the ten largest in the world and is bigger than that of Russia. While having nowhere near the economic capacity of the US or China, the country is one of the wealthiest on earth and is well able to afford to build and maintain the instruments of state power needed to materially influence the world around it.
Further, its population is among the forty largest of the almost two hundred nations in the world and is also one of the most globally connected. Nearly a quarter of Canadians were born elsewhere and have family, business, cultural or other ties that can be leveraged in building international relationships. The rate is only about half that in countries like the US and UK. Canada’s population is also the best educated in the world, giving it tremendous intellectual capacity to harness in working with like-minded partners to find workable solutions to global problems.
Reality 2: Canada’s Economy is Highly Dependent on Trade
According to the World Bank, roughly a third of Canada’s GDP is generated by exports. Consequently, the country’s economic well-being depends upon a stable and equitable international environment. However, the world’s traditional international mechanisms for maintaining that stability are losing their effectiveness, and the main guarantor of many of them, the US, is becoming less willing to do the job alone. Canada needs to become much more engaged with like-minded partners in defending or adapting those mechanisms to assure their continuing benefit to the global economy.
Reality 3: NATO Matters to Canada
The economy of the European Union is the second-largest in the world after the US, and larger than that of China. Further, trade with Europe has greater potential to involve higher value-added Canadian goods and services than trade with China, which tends to be more focused on commodities. Further, technology exports to China can be at high risk of Intellectual Property theft.
Consequently, the security of Europe is important to Canada, and Canada has recognized this for many years in its long-standing membership in NATO. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine certainly brought home this reality and renewed the focus of all member states on the fundamental purpose of the Alliance, but its raison d’être has never changed. In this context, Canadian commitments of forces to NATO operations like the Enhanced Forward Presence mission in Latvia are important contributions to the Alliance’s core mission.
Moreover, the NATO operational area is not limited to Europe. It includes the North Atlantic and North America. In fact, NATO member states’ land and maritime frontiers – including Canada’s Arctic – either directly or indirectly face the entire western, northern and eastern boundaries of Russia, including over 2,000 kilometers of direct land border.
Reality 4: Canada is Inseparably Connected to the United States by its Geography
Canada cannot move away from its neighbourhood when relations with the US get difficult. It must find ways to get along with the US no matter whether it is desirable. Further, the security and defence of Canada is inseparable from that of the US, and if this country were to be seen by its neighbours as a major point of security weakness they would quite legitimately do what is needed to defend themselves on, over or around Canada’s territory – with or without its permission.
Top priority for Canada is therefore defending itself and, equally, defending North America in collaboration with the US. Canadian sovereignty and independence depend on Canada doing this effectively – both to its own satisfaction and, to a considerable degree, the Americans’. The task inherently demands a very high level of mutual trust and systems interoperability between the two countries’ forces engaged in it, including the ability to seamlessly and continuously share operational and tactical intelligence and other data in real time.
Conclusion
These realities will inevitably shape some of the choices the government makes in the coming months and years. Prime Minister Carney has clearly abandoned the old political fiction of Canada “punching above its weight” in the world, committing to make investments in at least some of the tools of statecraft needed to wield influence more consistent with the country’s actual status. Recognizing Churchill’s dictum that “The power of any government depends ultimately upon its finances,” he is also moving quickly to reorient and strengthen the economy. However, all this will take time and resources.
In the meantime, there is much we can do in concert with like-minded European NATO partners, the Asian democracies and others who, collectively, have very considerable capacity to exert influence in the world. It takes hard work to get a critical mass of allies aligned on common issues and solutions, but Canada is the most uniquely placed member of that group to help develop consensus, given the diversity and global connectedness of its population. The nation’s history has also given it much practise at finding common ground and charting paths towards acceptable compromises. The question is whether Canada will choose to play this kind of role internationally.
Lastly, the government is clearly facing difficult choices in managing the currently fractious relationship with the US, but there are some principles that can usefully help guide the way. One is to avoid having short-term events and immediate reactions to them obscure the long-term view of the essentials. For example, while it is wise, necessary and overdue for Canada to pursue greater trade and relationships diversification, it is important to remember that US administrations change every few years and realize that North American shared geography and cultural roots will always make the US a major partner – economically, socially, culturally and in defence and security. The question is how to structure that partnership for mutual optimal benefit.
The Carney government has a tough job ahead of it, and the many complex choices it will need to make are unlikely to please everyone. Canada needs to recognize this and cut his team some slack as they navigate the way ahead. Focus on the totality of where we are going, not the individual decisions they make to get us there.
Col Charles Davies (Ret’d) is a former Canadian Armed Forces logistics officer. He retired in 2013 following a 42-year military and public service career and is now a research fellow with the Conference of Defence Associations Institute
