Canadians no longer live in a predictably safe neighbourhood. Indeed, we are witnessing the dramatic crumbling of the foundations of the international rules-based order upon which we have based our national security for the past eighty years. That includes direct threats to our sovereignty from the President of the United States; something that was literally unthinkable a few months ago.
Our self-perception as a fireproof house, far from inflammable materials has been shattered. Our penchant for “soft power” needs to evolve into a clear understanding of power as something “hard” and to recruit all the instruments of national power into service of our vital national interests. The new reality all Canadians face demands that we reassess our assumptions about national security, consider a range of potential scenarios with which we might conceivably have to contend, and develop investment and alliance options that will mitigate risk and give us flexibility, autonomy, and resilience. To do anything less would be irresponsible.
Two material factors must be considered in such a reckoning. The first is geography. The second is urgency.
Canada is obviously a North American country and an Arctic nation. Regardless of the path we choose in response to policy changes in Washington, Moscow, or Beijing, the United States will remain our closest neighbour and we will have no choice but to treat with them. That requires temperance in our rhetoric, careful separation of signal from noise, and resolute decisions that ensure long-term advantages accrue to Canada and Canadians. At the same time, we must continue to demand of, and offer to, our allies and adversaries alike mutual respect of our sovereignty, history, culture, and national aspirations.
Given the bewildering speed of events, there is an urgency to such a national project that hasn’t been seen since the Second World War. Erstwhile reliance on the American nuclear umbrella, combined with the seeming consensus around, and stability of, the rules-based international order, meant that Canadians could afford to extend the discussion about, and procurement of, vital defence materiel indefinitely. There was always time to mobilize in a hazy, but essentially unchanging future. How else could a country include in its cultural mythology such an ambivalent opinion of its defence and supporting industrial base while perennially under-resourcing its own national security?
These circumstances no longer pertain. The truth is that the speed of invasion outpaces the speed of procurement; the war in Ukraine has taught the world that lesson. There simply is no time left to perseverate. The Europeans have recently shown us that a process-heavy, risk-averse political culture can be overcome and decision-making and procurement can be accelerated when confronted by an undeniable threat. In a national emergency, Canadians have always shown their mettle; this is such a time, and there is no doubt Canadians will prove equal to today’s challenges.
To transform rhetoric into practical solutions and maximize the potential for successfully strengthening Canadian defence and contributing to the long-term security of North America, the following recommendations are proffered for consideration by all candidates for federal office:
- Commit to an immediate increase in defence spending to two percent of GDP – as the floor – with an explicit acknowledgement that the goal is to continue increasing through three or four percent, as European rearmament accelerates and provides a salutary example to emulate, and the geopolitical situation dictates;
- Accelerate all aspects of NORAD modernization immediately – eg. the Arctic construction season is very short indeed so getting shovels in the ground needs to occur right away;
- Double the order of fifth-generation fighter jets. If there is a political decision to cancel or reduce the procurement of F-35s and purchase a European fighter, then direct that procurement immediately and get an order on the books as soon as possible for the 150-200 jets we’ll need;
- Explore the option of joining the UK-Japan-Italy sixth-generation Global Combat Air Programme;
- Double the order of long-range maritime patrol aircraft;
- Order a third JSS to ensure the RCN has the combat-capable re-supply capability it will need to ensure its persistence and lethality;
- Finalize the submarine selection as quickly as possible and not get caught in a lengthy and expensive “Canadianization” of a proven submarine that works for other navies;
- Increase significantly our investments in strategic unmanned aerial and underwater surveillance systems;
- Commit to restructure, expand, equip and train the Canada Army’s regular and reserve land forces with the modern war-fighting expeditionary capabilities identified in the current defence policy needed to fulfil Canada’s contribution to NATO’s Collective Deterrence and Defence missions. This will mean transitioning quickly from “studying” to actually purchasing such items as modern artillery, long-range precision strike, air-defence, main battle tanks, counter-drone, C5ISR, and the ammunition required to operationalise such platforms;
- Issue a coherent defence industrial policy, through which each of these decisions would reinforce the Canadian industrial base upon which all Canadians rely for their ongoing prosperity and security;
- Implement the deep procurement reform required to deliver these capabilities with minimal delay.
These actions need to be taken quickly and decisively. They also need to be taken as sovereign decisions based on Canadian national interests. None of them inherently represents a turning away from our deep relationship with the United States; rather they can be viewed as the necessary diversification of our defence capabilities and as a hedge in an environment where that relationship can no longer be taken for granted. They should be viewed as mature steps toward a more serious stance on national security and statehood.
