CASE FOR ACTION
Canada needs a serious change of direction and enlightened statesmanship – now more than ever!
Perhaps the biggest risk facing Canada today is that it might NOT use President Trump’s tariff crisis and the attacks on Canada’s statehood as an opportunity to re-tool its economy, strengthen its security and defence, reinforce aspects of Canadian sovereignty, and regain respect from allies and potential foes alike. Can Canada afford to return to ‘business as usual’? We think not!
For the past decade, the world has been undergoing unprecedented, even dramatic change. Canada has not kept pace and essentially has fallen behind in many respects. When Russia launched its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, many claimed that Ottawa would ‘wake up’ to the need to take its security and defence seriously. Instead, little was done at that time (or since) to enhance Canada’s security and defence postures and, even as it came to support Ukraine, the federal government tended to focus more on announcements than on achieving results. The Ukraine crisis was dealt with as a transactional moment, and not as a harbinger of the changing international environment as Russia demonstrated absolute contempt for the Rules-Based International Order (RBIO). The awareness of Canada’s limited capacity to make meaningful contributions was squandered, and there was largely a return to ‘business as usual’.
Over the last decade, adversaries – from Russia to China to Iran – have demonstrated a new, growing propensity to employ violence and coercion in pursuit of their national objectives and in disregard and defiance of the RBIO. The recent actions by the Trump administration are the latest indication that a ‘business as usual’ approach will be insufficient to meet and protect Canadian interests.
The United States has been disengaging from global leadership for some time. The second coming of Donald Trump to the White House has made this more starkly so. The USA will not retreat into isolationism, but will engage in different ways, to make the USA more secure, stronger and more prosperous in a fortress North American hemisphere. Any preferential deals with allies and partners will have the USA national interest at the core of its strategy. Using the proverbial tariff sword of Damocles hanging over allies and foes alike is part of President Trump’s strategy. Sounds very Machiavellian, and it is.
Canada now faces a new reality!
For too long Canadians and Canadian governments appeared to assume that sovereignty would be granted. The belief may have been that ‘if we followed the rules’ then so too would everyone else, and ‘all would be good’. The events of the last decade indicate that this is a flawed assumption.
Moreover, when Canadian sovereignty is threatened, Canadians appeal – for understandable reasons – to patriotism and rally around the flag in the hope that the threats go away. This is important, but not sufficient.
Sovereignty can be defined as the authority of a State to govern itself. It may be possible to consider different aspects of sovereignty, like arctic sovereignty – the ability of Canada to govern itself in the Arctic region, or border sovereignty – the ability of Canada to control and govern its own borders, or economic sovereignty, informational sovereignty and so on. However, as the election interference investigation indicates, and as other challenges make clear, sovereignty cannot be assumed or taken for granted!
If Canada treats the ongoing challenges from Washington as no more than something to be managed, it would be a failure to recognize the changing global order and would fail to address the growing threats to Canada’s sovereignty – the ability of Canada to govern itself. And regardless of what may happen after President Trump’s 30-day reprieve, Canada cannot be complacent, or simply wait out the storm and/or consider a return to ‘business as usual’. Canada needs to address these global challenges deliberately, or the ability to govern itself will continue to erode, with a loss of sovereignty.
Unfortunately, Canada lacks a unifying vision or what might be considered a national strategy. Canada does not have a national security strategy, nor a comprehensive foreign affairs policy, or a pan-Canadian, resilient economic strategy. Yet, the current situation demands the development of a more strategic approach by Canada, to ensure it is prepared for the dramatic changes to the global order. By recognizing the need to elevate itself above the current crisis, Canada may influence and shape the direction of these tectonic changes, while reinforcing Canadian sovereignty – the ability of the country to govern itself.
Fundamentally, Canada needs to establish a comprehensive national security strategy that ensures Canadian sovereignty, and which preserves the ability to act and decide in favour of Canada and Canadians. The national strategy will articulate the ways that Canada will protect Canada’s national interests, across the many dimensions of national sovereignty, as well as those ways that will bolster an international order that serves Canada’s interests. And the Government will need to provide the means to put all these ways into action.
Recognizing the global challenges occurring around Canada, the national strategy will serve as the framework for a series of changes or initiatives that will address Canada’s national interests. For the next decade, the Canadian government will need to champion a wave of bold initiatives, focusing its priorities and placing effective and efficient implementation at the centre of these innovative initiatives.
This will entail slaughtering some sacred cows, especially inter-provincial barriers and squabbles. It will be difficult, but Canada will emerge stronger. By investing in a national strategy, at speed, and by reaffirming Canada’s economic, border and arctic sovereignty in a renewed North American relationship (after all, geography remains a powerful determinant), Canada will be more credible and prosperous – and less reliant on a single country.
The key to success will be to lay out a clear vision with key priorities that can refocus spending and galvanize the many public and private actors that need to play their part in unison and with the national interest at its core.
CONSIDERATIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS
Canada’s national security strategy should identify the national interests and provide the priorities and framework to pursue those interests. In that vein, here is a list of key recommendations that the new Canadian Government will likely need to consider, regardless of the real or potential threat from the Trump Administration:
- Immediately commit to increased defence capability and capacity. We are reluctant to embrace a specific spending target; however, we are clear and unequivocal on the need for Canada to be objectively serious in its military and defence posture and its contributions to NATO and its other partners and interests. This must be the target, with whatever funding necessary to realize it. As a serious defence partner, Canada will be able to ensure our sovereignty, protect our national interests, and deter those who threaten the same.
- As part of a renewed Security and Defence strategy, Canada can emerge as a leader in next generation defence technologies, with priority focus on the Canadian Arctic – an increasingly contested strategic region. Canada can no longer do the minimum and count on a free ride from the Americans to protect its arctic sovereignty. While this won’t happen overnight, the federal government must leverage existing strengths – such as drones, state-of-the-art satellite and under-the-ice surveillance, submarines, and artificial intelligence – and support the growth of firms developing technologies that have dual civilian and military applications. Canada needs to re-affirm sovereignty over its Arctic region, pushing back on aggressive potential foes contesting Canada’s claim to it and attempting to exploit its resources and geo-strategic position.
- Commit to a renewed, persistent joint Canada-USA border enforcement regime that will address major criminal activities (drugs, illegal weapons, human trafficking). This may entail key reforms to the Canadian justice system to be more effective in handling border enforcement criminality.
- On a priority basis work on a timeline to remove inter-provincial trade restrictions, invest in Canadian East-West-North infrastructure (Pipelines, LNG and Oil Refineries), AND invite US Federal and State Governments, and industry to invest in these infrastructure projects. (While we are not experts in constitutional matters, we assess that the strengthening of Canada’s national fabric is essential to reinforcing Canada’s economic resilience and independence; hence reaffirming its economic sovereignty).
ADDITIONAL SUGGESTIONS
The four priority recommendations described above are essential to strengthen Canadian sovereignty. We also consider that the following suggestions should be closely examined and weighed by economic, trade, and other experts, in support of a new national vision and security strategy.
- In addition to adjusting the infrastructure for energy extraction, processing, and distribution – domestically, regionally, and internationally – Canada must do more to unlock potential in agriculture and agri-food, as well as critical and rare earth minerals. Global demand for these products is poised to exceed supply in the coming decades, making them prime strategic targets for Canada. Whether it is potash, nickel, lithium or other essential resources, Canada is rich in many critical minerals. Under the Canadian Critical Minerals Strategy, expand the capacity to capitalize on critical minerals and to ensure shared benefits from the investments, thus supporting a strong mineral ecosystem with clean technology and advanced manufacturing sectors. Widen the collaboration with Provinces and Territories by advancing policies and strategies to ensure their critical minerals are evaluated for potential and sustainable development. This process includes assessing their connection to industry value chains and core investments.
- Keep high potential startups at home. Innovative Canadian firms—and the talent they employ—may be tempted to move to the USA or be vulnerable to being bought out by larger American companies if tariffs and other trade barriers make it harder to operate in both countries. Losing these businesses could mean the loss of valuable intellectual property and slower growth of frontier sectors needed to form the foundation for Canada’s success in the economy of the mid-21st century. Governments can close gaps in financing through existing programs and continue to improve support for more intellectual property ownership, but they also need to make it more attractive for startups to blossom in Canada.
Accelerating demand for their products is one way to do that. Encouraging Canadian firms and governments to adopt AI and other transformational technologies can have the added benefit of improving productivity growth. But governments need better tools to incentivize technological adoption than they have used in the past, focusing on addressing the barriers to adoption rather than bureaucratic financing.
CONCLUSION
The strategic environment has changed, and Canada cannot simply appeal to patriotic fervour (which is important, but not sufficient), ‘ride it out’, and then resort to a ‘business as usual’ mentality. Canada cannot waste the opportunity of the crisis presented by the tariff threat and the over-reliance on one customer. Starting with the development of a national security strategy, fit for the 21st Century, Canada must take very seriously its sovereignty, security, national defence, border and arctic regions. Through this strategy, Canada will significantly and credibly safeguard the ability to govern itself, while contributing to a stronger, secure and prosperous hemisphere!
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